RVA Weather Dispatch: Chantal’s Last Dance, Then Back to July Business
🎯 Key Takeaways:
Tropical Depression Chantal continues its northward trek tonight, bringing rounds of showers and storms—especially south of Route 60.
Localized flash flooding possible—watch the US-15 corridor from Prince Edward to Mecklenburg counties.
Heat and humidity return midweek, with heat index values near 105°F by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Daily “pop-up” storms become the norm again, classic Mid-Atlantic summer style.
Photo Credit: National Hurricane Center (NHC) map showing the progress of Chantal
🌧️ Tonight into Monday: Chantal’s Farewell Performance
As of Sunday afternoon, Tropical Depression Chantal is spinning over far southeast North Carolina. She’s not the most dramatic guest we’ve ever had, but she’s got just enough tropical energy to make things messy for us tonight and Monday.
Expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially late tonight into early Monday. While most folks will see a manageable 0.25” to 0.5” of rainfall, narrow tropical rainbands could unload a quick 1 to 3 inches in short bursts—especially along and near US-15, from Prince Edward to Mecklenburg Counties.
⛈️ Flood Watch in effect: for that stretch along the US-15 corridor—keep your weather apps handy and stay alert if you’re in a flood-prone area.
And heads-up for folks in far SE Virginia and NE North Carolina—there's just enough shear and spin in the atmosphere for a brief, sneaky tornado. Not a high risk, but we can’t completely rule it out.
Photo Credit: Pivotal Weather HRRR Forecast Model - shows the chance of showers into tomorrow morning.
🌦️ Monday: Lingering Rain, Flash Flood Potential Continues
By sunrise, Chantal’s remnants should be lounging near the VA/NC border, much weaker but still moist and moody. Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger, with high PWATs around 2.5” and continued localized flood potential, especially over the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore.
🌡️ Highs Monday: Mid to upper 80s
☔ Localized rainfall: Potential for 1-3” bursts in heavier bands
🟢 WPC has us under a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook again for Monday
Photo Credit: Pivotal Weather HRRR Forecast Model - shows the amount of precipitation that can be expected from this system by Monday night.
☀️ Tuesday–Wednesday: Back to July Business
Once Chantal exits stage northeast, classic July weather takes over:
Hot and humid returns with temps in the low to mid 90s
Heat Index near 105°F, especially SE of Richmond—heat headlines may be issued
Pop-up afternoon storms are likely both days, especially where sea breeze/outflow boundaries interact
Photo Credit: Pivotal Weather ECMWF Forecast Model - shows the heat and humidity by Tuesday.
🌬️ With DCAPE values >1000 J/kg, any storm could pack gusty downburst winds, especially Tuesday.
🪴 Gardener’s Corner
Roots might get soggy south of town tonight into Monday. If you're in Prince Edward, Lunenburg, or Mecklenburg, give the soil a poke test before watering again this week. And as the heat builds midweek, morning watering is your best defense against scorched blooms and wilted tomatoes.
Got photos, rain totals, or storm updates? Send them in or tag us with #rvawx. For the full experience, check www.rvawx.net or our Substack archives for time-lapse videos from Sky Spectrum Studios.
Photo Credit: Timelapse I captured this morning before a rogue shower formed right over the house.
Stay safe, stay cool, and keep your umbrella on standby—this is July in Virginia after all.
—Richard Foreman
Nature’s Narrative ✍️